Loro Piana Populism
Being Chamath, peak anti-expert, comedian philosophers. Who wins with tariff turmoil?
POD 129: Loro Piana Populism
The tariff wars kicked off and confirmed that we have are in a post-expertise era where your bona fides matter less than your confidence. Plus: celebrating GDPR’s impending demise. What to do with Vanity Fair, and Shopify’s AI manifesto.
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PVA CONVERSATION
Expertise is funny
TROY: Self-styled polymath, Chamath Palihapitiya, is holding court on the Flagrant podcast, bloviating about the deep logic of Trump-land tariff policy and its underlying macroeconomic and sociopolitical logic. He is being interviewed by its YouTube-famous comedian host, Andrew Schulz, and his comedian posse.
Palihapitiya has become a person of internet influence. His deep thoughts are painstakingly deconstructed in X threads by growth-hacking fanboys like oil and gas CEO Adam Oxsen: "Here are untold secrets of the President's $750B gamble."
Chamath is a great American story. Born in Sri Lanka. Grew up in Ottawa. Studied electrical engineering at the University of Waterloo. A well timed move from AOL to Facebook as VP of User Growth made him rich (he has since renounced the evil work he did there). Facebook riches made him an investor. Investing led to podcasting. The wildly popular All-In pod accelerated the path to internet bon vivant.
I'm sure Chamath has formidable product guy skills, among other gifts. He is reasonably articulate, self assured and occasionally insightful. He is not an economist or an experienced policy person, though podcasts have a habit of turning you into one. He was red-pilled by his poker pal and All-In pod co-host, now AI czar, David Sacks. Since then, Chamath has enjoyed a new proximity to Trump power and freely slings his celebrity in support of the cause. I am happy for Chamath. He seems to enjoy the attention. He has nice sweaters.
None of that matters. You can cosplay anything you want in the Information Space, especially with financial independence and a backroom of eager hedge fund analysts. Become your very own Ray Dalio macro tariff policy expert on the podcast circuit.
Comedians interviewing a product guy / fund manager / Loro Piana influencer about tariff policy is what we’ve come to expect as media in the Information Space. In olden media days, we had policy journalists backed by research analysts interviewing actual economists, accountable to policy-expert editors, kept honest by fact-checkers. Sometimes I miss the old media.
Comedians (and venture capitalists) go wide now, emerging as renaissance conversationalists inside our “Information Space.” Podcasts have given folks like Schulz and Rogan a forum to bridge humor to an expansive cultural and political dialog. Perhaps Musk was right when he proclaimed, "The most entertaining outcome is the most likely." The markets, unfortunately, didn't find the tariff shenanigans all that entertaining.
Watching the Trump tariff policy discussion spill out across social media reminded me of high school Model UN meets the Comedy Cellar on a slow Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, over on The Logan Bartlett Show, venture capitalist, and entrepreneur Zack Weinberg schools a similarly pedigreed Keith Rabois on the insanity of this chaotic moment. Rabois stumbles to find clean logic around how all of this is being managed. But, the Trump sycophants need to talk this out. There's a method here, Rabois insists. 3D chess. You may not trust Trump entirely but worry not, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has his back. Here’s a legit genius with real-world chops. Bessent will "win the trade."
Chamath and Andrew, Zack and Keith, Adam on X... everybody is just talking it out.
After all, talk is just media now. Talk is cheap. Talk is fungible. Talk is entertaining. Nothing we say matters that much in the Information Space. If things don't go as planned, we'll say something different tomorrow.
These are all smart people, accomplished and often shameless people who’ve made tons of money inventing new things. But, sometimes I want a expert. I want a qualified medical specialist to figure out if my back pain is cancer. I want experts that have rigorously studied cause and effect in very specific, intricate trade scenarios. People backed by complicated equations and models. People that know their history. People that have done the homework.
Brian, I know Trump's Tariff Week has been wildly entertaining for you and the deeply online media gluttons deciphering the Trump Ouija board. Maybe this is just a new kind of media participation, a relentless peeling back of the layers to get to a better truth. Participatory democracy in action. Or maybe it's just creating an enormous amount of unproductive agita. I'm not sure. Maybe I should head back to Wolf Blitzer on CNN. What do you think?
BRIAN: I suspect we might be nearing peak anti-expert. The experts got us into Iraq, gave us the financial crisis and bungled Covid. Let’s see how this trade war turns out. It will take Chamath-level gymnastics to pin a negative outcome on experts and elites.
I got something very wrong about the decentralization of media. I thought it would elevate experts to share their expertise. That was naive. Staying in your lane is not rewarded.
The podcast circuit is merging with libertarian YouTube comedians. I listened to three hours of someone named Dave Smith on Lex Fridman. I first heard of him after he was on Joe Rogan. He spoke with a lot of confidence about Israel-Palestine, Ukraine and more. He wasn’t funny. I suppose this is the next iteration of Jon Stewart. This crowd is different. They’re not doing polished bits. They are using the quick wits needed for standup in what’s become a shoulder industry.
They’re all seemingly loosely organized. They promote each other and act as a character witness when one asks the wrong questions about WWII topics. There’s a quasi-intellectual wing, too. People like Brett Weinstein, Jordan Peterson and Darryl Cooper. These are not the public intellectuals of yesteryear, that’s for sure.
What I’ve realized is that actual expertise is a nice to have. A must-have is to be compelling and present the veneer of expertise by speaking confidently and, in Chamath’s case, very deliberately to signal thoughtfulness.
The tide will shift. People like Sam Harris and Douglas Murray are pushing back. Murray went on Rogan to spar with Dave Smith, and to tell Rogan authority through expertise still matters.
ALEX: Glad to see you're finally coming around, Troy. Information space participants are quickly noticing that everything is entertainment and therefore everything needs to be entertaining. It's the attention economy and no longer the information economy, so being the performative analysis schtick pays off. All you need is to have some form of success (rich, famous, both) and you now have an honorary degree in anything you want. People like Chamath are great at acting smart and confident that it doesn't really matter what they say – and, when they get it completely wrong, everything moves so fast that you can always start over. It's like an Etch-a-Sketch but for stupid takes
Comedians are the perfect form factor for this new reality. They are entertainers with takes. Rogan showed them that it's way easier and more profitable to just sit in a chair and feel your way into some truth and just bring guests that have "interesting things to say". They've got tough skin from all the failed jokes. They've got the shield of humor. They're good at getting attention. The problem is that they've also become the place people go for answers.. This video by Elephant Graveyard is just a great vibe piece on the state of things. Must watch.
ANONYMOUS BANKER
Who wins with tariff turmoil?
As market gyrations continue, the headlines are dramatic, but underlying business fundamentals remain largely unchanged. Much of the volatility has been driven by sentiment and speculation. So, as we try to make sense of what happens next, let’s zoom out and pull on two threads: Who stands to benefit in the near term? And who is built to keep winning over the long haul, regardless of disruption?
1) Near-Term Beneficiaries:
New + Fast Growers: Periods of chaos (and economic uncertainty) can benefit fast-growing, well-funded companies. Top-tier talent becomes more accessible and affordable, customer acquisition costs decline, competition may diminish, and operators are rewarded for operating lean and with focus. Additionally, these conditions can present attractive opportunities for M&A. Examples: Substack, Beehiiv, Discord, Kick, The Free Press, Puck, Audiochuck, Rumble.
Franchise Brands & Private Family-Owned Fortresses: These players are less agile but more stable. When markets wobble, they rely on legacy, brand equity, and, most importantly, balance sheets fortified with substantial cash reserves and, in some cases, diversified holdings. Don’t expect rapid experimentation or new offerings (you’ll see headcount reductions) this year. While they may not thrive, they are unlikely to disappear; some will seize M&A opportunities, but many will focus on managing cash flow and awaiting more favorable conditions. Examples: News Corp, Hearst, and Condé.
2) The Antifragile Few (Don’t sell your stock in these companies)
Some businesses collapse under pressure. Others hold the line. And a rare few, what Nassim Taleb calls antifragile, actually strengthen amid volatility. They’re not just survivors. They adapt, evolve, and scale during disruption. Examples: Netflix, Amazon, Meta and Spotify.
Good Follows
This week, instead of links, we wanted to share some of our favorite people to follow in times of chaos (a bunch of investors and a couple of weirdos).
Boaz Weinstein @boazweinstein – Hedge fund manager and founder of Saba Capital, renowned for his expertise in credit derivatives and high-profile bets against market complacency.
Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness – Co-founder of AQR Capital Management, a pioneer in quantitative investing, and a vocal advocate for evidence-based financial strategies.
Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh – Co-founder of Lux Capital, a venture firm investing in emerging technologies; known for his deep insights into science, technology, and market dynamics.
Mohamed El-Erian @elerianm – Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz and former CEO of PIMCO, offering nuanced perspectives on global economic trends and policy decisions.
Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos – Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, providing detailed reporting on the Federal Reserve and economic policy.
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart – Co-host of Odd Lots and Bloomberg editor, delivering fast, curious, and often contrarian takes on markets, economics, and financial weirdness.
Larry Summers @LHSummers – Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard economist, offering influential commentary on fiscal policy and economic challenges.
Emily Is In SF @emilyinvc – From X: “investor, jewess, natural blonde.” Unfiltered commentary on tech, venture capital, and culture.
Derek Guy @dieworkwear – Menswear writer and cultural commentator, known for his thoughtful takes on fashion and its intersection with society.